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技术预见主要研究方法综述及可实施路径分析
曹学伟, 高晓巍
(中国科协创新战略研究院)
Technology foresight methods overview and analysis of feasible implementation path
Cao xuewei, Gao xiaowei
(national academy of innovation strategy)
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投稿时间:2020-01-19    修订日期:2020-02-04
中文摘要: 技术预见活动起源于美国,随后逐渐被日本、德国、英国、法国等国家广泛应用。技术预见的研究方法主要分为定性分析方法和定量分析方法两大类,各有优缺点。本研究首先对当前国内外技术预见领域使用频率较高的德尔菲法、技术路线图、情景分析法、科学计量法进行详细介绍;最后以服务于我国中长期科技发展规划为目标,总结出一套多种分析方法综合使用的技术预见活动模型,旨在为国家级水平的技术预见活动提供理论依据。
Abstract:Technology foresight originated in the United States, and was gradually used in Japan, Germany, Britain, France and other countries. The research methods of technology foresight are mainly divided into qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, each with its advantages and disadvantages. This paper mainly introduced the Delphi method, technology roadmap, scenario analysis and bibliometrics, which are frequently used in the field of technology foresight. Then, in order to serve National middle long-term science and technology development Plan, an integrated technology foresight method model was concluded, which provides a theoretical basis for national technology foresight activities.
文章编号:20200119001     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
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